Промислова та географічна диверсифікація експорту: чи достатньо диверсифікований СНД?
20 серпня 2009 р., подано в Journal of International Trade and Economic Development
This paper applies a two stage estimation procedure that accounts for a sample-selection bias and firm-level heterogeneity in order to estimate a gravity model of exports at industry level of aggregation for 119 exporting countries and 142 importing countries in 2002-2006. It further projects the estimation results on nine CIS countries in order to compute “out-of-sample” predictions of exports and compare actual and predicted degree of export diversification along industry and space dimensions. The results show that all CIS countries lag behind the region leaders in terms of the degree of export diversification. In particular, the CIS countries that are extensively engaged in exports of raw materials have the most concentrated exports among all transition countries in terms of their industrial composition. The lack of diversification makes CIS countries vulnerable to unfavorable terms of trade shocks. For example, out of all transition countries, Ukraine was hit the most by the current global crisis due to its reliance on exports of metals – a commodity that suffered a devastating collapse in trade volumes during the last quarter of 2008. As another example, Belarus lacks geographical diversification of trade which makes this country vulnerable to trade disputes with Russia.
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